Inside Job: “A crime committed by or in collusion with a person or persons closely associated with the victim.”
The National Park Service (NPS) has determined that a “human” started the July 2022 Washburn Fire just off of the Washburn Trail near the Mariposa Grove of Giant Sequoias in Yosemite National Park. Did the fire occur accidentally or intentionally?
As difficult as it may be to believe that someone would purposely set a fire of this magnitude (4,886 acres) and put so much at risk, my observations reveal evidence that a person, or persons, “closely associated with the victim” (i.e., Yosemite National Park), did intentionally ignite the fire. Perhaps at this point, some 18 months after the fire started, it does not matter. If that was the case, however, why would the NPS investigation* still be ongoing since it has already been determined that a “human” started it? Clearly, it does matter.
Consequently, let me first discuss the evidence against the fire starting accidentally. Then, I will discuss the more convincing evidence that a person intentionally started the Washburn Fire.
*The Washburn Fire remains under investigation as of February 14, 2024 according to a correspondence by the Yosemite National Park Service Superintendent’s Office.
EVIDENCE AGAINST AN ACCIDENTAL START:
The US Forest Service reports that accidental human-start fires stem primarily from two sources: 1. Heat or sparks from the operation of a machine (or motorized equipment), and 2. Heat or sparks generated by an illegal campfire or a cigarette.
1. MOTORIZED EQUIPMENT IS PROHIBITED ON WILDERNESS TRAILS::
No motorized equipment is allowed on the Washburn Trail or the Mariposa Grove Road (except for Shuttles and Park vehicles). Anyone using such a device during midday on the trail when the fire started likely would have been identified and apprehended given that the fire started less than a quarter of a mile from the Shuttle drop-off point at the Mariposa Grove of Giant Sequoias.
Many visitors do come to Yosemite and the Mariposa Grove during the first week of July. Long lines at the Grove’s return shuttle stop can cause the few who might be aware of the Washburn Trail to use it to get back to the parking lot sooner. However, it is unlikely anyone could have gone unidentified using a motorized device that generated enough heat to accidentally start a fire.
If a person with motorized equipment traveled eastward on the Trail toward the Grove from the Mariposa Grove Welcome Plaza and exited it at the shuttle drop-off point, he/she would have been heard and seen. If the person turned around where the fire started and went back to the parking lot, this too is an unlikely scenario of a person using motorized equipment on the trail but not being identified.
Consequently, one can easily eliminate heat or sparks from a motorized device as the accidental cause of the Washburn Fire.
2. CIGARETTE SMOKING WAS RESSTRICTED THROUGHOUT THE PARK (additionally, campfires are prohibited outside of a fire ring, and no evidence of an illegal campfire is reported to have started the fire):
Some may attribute the fire to an accidentally dropped cigarette that did not get fully extinguished. It’s possible, but first-phase fire restrictions were announced eight days before the start of the fire, and the NPS does what it can to educate all who come into the Park about the fire danger.
The fire restrictions prohibit smoking below 6,000 feet in elevation while traveling on trails (the shuttle stop at the Grove is at 5,600 feet in elevation). Restrictions do allow a person to stand still until the cigarette is extinguished in an area where no flammable material exists within a diameter of three feet where the person standing, but the Washburn Trail would hardly qualify as such.
Additionally, only 6.2% of Californians smoke according to a report by the California Department of Public Health (CDPH). This significantly lowers the odds of an accidental cigarette start. True, about 25% of Yosemite visitors travel from abroad where smoking rates may be higher, but knowledge of the Washburn Trail remains low, reducing the likelihood that an irresponsible smoker was on the trail on July 7, 2022. So, although the chances that a lit cigarette started the fire is higher than in the motorized equipment scenario, it remains unlikely due to the minimal use of the trail when the shuttles are in operation, low smoker rates, NPS fire education, and the existence of fire restrictions on July 7, 2022.
If a fire resulted from the careless disposal of a smoldering cigarette into the forest of a National Park of Yosemite’s status, near a cherished grove of ancient redwoods, and amidst first-stage fire restrictions, it could hardly be considered accidental. Such negligence would be categorized as purposeful. Nevertheless, a smoldering-cigarette-caused fire seems unlikely given the conditions stated above and that no cigarette butt has been reported to be found by NPS fire investigators.
EVIDENCE FOR AN INTENTIONAL START:
Fires intentionally set by humans occur for many reasons. These reasons include the thrill and excitement that comes from the explosion of flames to the more functional purpose where firefighters, especially interns or new recruits, start fires to increase opportunities to gain fire-fighting experience. Acts of revenge and personal recognition or fame may also be perceived by arsonists as the rewards of engaging in fire-setting behavior.
The investigation that follows examines a string of coincidences related to the start of the Washburn Fire that, if viewed individually, might be considered “luck” or unlinked to one another. However, when viewed in totality, the evidence exhibits a clear picture of intentionality and planning. These coincidences focus on three issues: 1. Timing of the fire, 2. Location of the fire, and 3. Motivation for the fire. I look at each of these and make the case that they are not random events.
1. TIMING OF THE FIRE:
Early Summer: On June 30, 2022, the NPS declared the beginning of fire season in Yosemite. With that declaration comes expectations for fire, thereby “normalizing” the start of any fire after the declaration. This would reduce suspiciousness surrounding an intentionally lit fire. Only eight days after the beginning of the fire season, the Washburn Fire ignited.
Although the timing may not raise questions from the general public, it would for those who know that an “early summer” fire is an anomaly in Yosemite. Fires tend to occur in late summer, such as in August and September. Typically, these fires ignite as a result of lightning from monsoonal storms that arrive from the southwest when the brush in Yosemite has dried and the average temperatures hover in the 90-degree range. Eight out of ten of the largest fires in Yosemite started in August or later regardless of being a human or natural start fire (see chart below modified and updated from kpcc.org). Of the two that occurred in July, one, the Ferguson Fire, started outside the Park on July 13, 2018 due to an overheated automobile catalytic converter near dry grass. The other, the Hoover Fire, started on July 10, 2001 as a result of lightning.
Additionally, an early-season fire comes with the knowledge that more fire-fighting resources would be available since most fires start in late summer. Greater resources mean quicker containment and control of the fire allowing fire damage to be reduced compared to a large conflagration that gets out of hand. The fire starter would have an appreciation of this to serve his/her/their purpose since both the town of Wawona and the Mariposa Grove of Giant Sequoias would be at risk of burning. As keenly stated by Hankin, et al (2023), “Regional fire activity was low, therefore, abundant resources were available for suppression efforts.”
Day of the Week: Why Thursday, July 7th? According to an LA Times piece published online on July 30, 2022, “Luck was on the side of the fire officials: Two Yosemite battalion chiefs were teaching a chainsaw class to a sizable contingent of firefighters in the nearby Wawona area and were able to quickly respond, along with a water tender, two engines and the park’s water-dropping helicopter.” The class was only about 5 miles from the fire’s location. In isolation it appears to be a ‘lucky’ coincidence as the article’s author notes, but, given the start date of the fire and its location, it points to someone possessing knowledge that resources were in place to respond quickly to suppress the fire, and to protect visitors, developments, and other infrastructure as dictated by Forest Service policy.
Time of Day: The fire started approximately between the hours of noon and 2 pm, providing adequate time for a lunchtime absence to go unnoticed before a “human(s)” returned to his/her work assignment.
Additionally, the prevailing weather had been predictable for the week, with midday temperature in the low 80’s in South Wawona (4,000-foot elevation) and likely cooler near the Grove (5,600-foot elevation). This moderated the intensity of the fire allowing it to be more easily managed. As noted by Hankin, et al (2023), “the Washburn fire did not burn under the most extreme fire weather conditions.”
Chart courtesy of timeanddate.com
Weather data for the days leading up to July 7th indicated that a consistent west-northwest wind blew over Wawona at midday. This weather pattern would also assist in managing the fire as the breeze would slow the fire’s encroachment on the town, reducing risks to precious Park and private infrastructure. Meanwhile, at the Grove, the winds were moving in exactly the opposite direction which “pushed flames away from the heart of the grove and downhill toward Wawona” according to the LA Times article. This reduced risks to the much-loved Grove of Giant Sequoias (see map below).
This would also allow for “backfiring”, a process wherein firefighters burn vegetation toward the main fire, reducing the fuel load when the two fires met. The LA Times article put it this way: “Those factors allowed firefighters to build a flanking line and steer flames around the grove, said Mike Theune, fire information officer for the National Park Service’s Pacific West region.” – Emphasis added.
Consequently, knowledge of local weather data likely contributed to understanding the potential directionality of a fire burning at that time of day and week.
2. LOCATION OF THE FIRE'S IGNITION POINT AND EXPECTED FOOTPRINT:
-- Continued Next Month In Part 2 --
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